A record season, led by mobile and AI. Is your store ready?
Adobe expects another record holiday online, with AI assistants sending far more shoppers than last year. The winners will be stores that AI can read and phones can buy from easily.
By the Xuru Technologies team · 4 October 2026
Key takeaways
- Adobe forecasts $275.1 billion in US online spending from 1 November to 31 December 2026, up 6.7%.
- Cyber Monday is expected to hit $15.1 billion; Cyber Week $47.5 billion.
- AI-referred traffic to retail sites is forecast up 130% year on year.
- Mobile is expected to reach 57.4% of spending; buy now, pay later $21.3 billion.
Last holiday season AI traffic grew nearly sevenfold. This year it is forecast to more than double again, and those visitors now convert well.
What happened
Relevant Audience summarised Adobe's forecast, released on 28 September. Digital Commerce 360 also covered it.
What it means for online stores
- AI referrals are a growth channel. Product data quality matters.
- Mobile is the default. Fast, simple checkout wins.
- Social and affiliates grow fastest. Diversify beyond paid search.
Holiday checklist
| Priority | Action |
|---|---|
| AI visibility | Product schema, detailed descriptions, reviews. |
| Mobile checkout | Wallets, autofill, one page. |
| Performance | Load test before Black Friday. |
| Payments | Offer pay-later for bigger baskets. |
Frequently asked questions
How much will Americans spend online this holiday season?Adobe forecasts $275.1 billion from 1 November to 31 December 2026, up 6.7%.
Adobe forecasts $275.1 billion from 1 November to 31 December 2026, up 6.7%.
How fast is AI shopping traffic growing?Adobe forecasts AI-referred traffic to retail sites up 130% year on year this season.
Adobe forecasts AI-referred traffic to retail sites up 130% year on year this season.
What is the biggest shopping day?Cyber Monday, 30 November 2026, forecast at $15.1 billion.
Cyber Monday, 30 November 2026, forecast at $15.1 billion.
Holiday-ready for people and AI.
Fast mobile stores with product schema and AI-friendly content.
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