Prices up, a rate rise ahead. Prepare before 5 November.
Fuel-driven inflation pushed UK prices higher again, and markets expect the first rate rise in over three years. UK firms should act on costs and bookings now.
By the Xuru Technologies team · 22 October 2026
Key takeaways
- UK CPI inflation rose to 3.5% in September 2026, from 3.1% in August.
- Motor fuels rose 29.8% year on year; petrol averaged 169.5p and diesel 192.5p a litre.
- Restaurant and hotel inflation slowed to 3.8%.
- Markets put the odds of a 5 November rate rise to 4% above 90%.
The energy shock is now feeding through to transport and services. For UK businesses, costs and borrowing are both heading up.
What happened
Babypips reported the ONS data and market expectations, noting factory gate prices up 4.6%. The Bank of England's September decision had already shown three members voting for a hike.
What it means for UK businesses
- Borrowing costs likely rise. Variable loans will cost more.
- Delivery and travel cost more. Fuel affects logistics and footfall.
- Hospitality holds steadier. Restaurant and hotel inflation eased slightly.
Before winter
| Action | Why |
|---|---|
| Review loans before 5 November | Consider fixing where sensible. |
| Secure festive bookings with deposits | Lock in revenue early. |
| Cut third-party commissions | Protect margins. |
| Offer local and click-and-collect | Less driving for customers. |
Frequently asked questions
What was UK inflation in September 2026?3.5%, up from 3.1% in August, according to the ONS.
3.5%, up from 3.1% in August, according to the ONS.
Will the Bank of England raise rates in November?Markets put the odds above 90% for a rise to 4% on 5 November, though the decision is not final. This is general information, not financial advice.
Markets put the odds above 90% for a rise to 4% on 5 November, though the decision is not final. This is general information, not financial advice.
How can a UK small business prepare?Review borrowing, secure festive revenue early and reduce costs through automation and direct sales.
Review borrowing, secure festive revenue early and reduce costs through automation and direct sales.
Lock in winter revenue now.
Festive booking, deposits, gift cards and direct ordering for UK businesses.
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