Online grows twice as fast. Get the store ready now.
Holiday spending is set to grow, with online leading. But shoppers at every income level are switching brands for better value.
By the Xuru Technologies team · 28 September 2026
Key takeaways
- Deloitte forecasts holiday retail sales up 4% to 4.8%, reaching $1.7 trillion to $1.71 trillion (November to January).
- E-commerce is forecast to grow 7.5% to 8.4%, to $316–319 billion.
- Value-seeking, brand switching and promotion use are rising across all incomes.
The holiday season starts earlier every year. The stores that prepare in September and October win when demand peaks.
What happened
HomePage News reported Deloitte's forecast, linking it to disposable income growth of 4.5% to 5.2%. Deloitte's press release has the full figures.
What it means for retailers
- Online is the growth engine. Site speed and checkout matter most.
- Loyalty is weaker. Shoppers switch for value, so make value obvious.
- Promotions drive decisions. Plan offers early and clearly.
Pre-season checklist
| Task | Deadline |
|---|---|
| Speed and checkout tests | Early October. |
| Gift guides and product schema | Mid October. |
| Email list warm-up | Late October. |
| Delivery cut-off messaging | Before Black Friday. |
Frequently asked questions
What does Deloitte forecast for holiday 2026?Retail sales up 4% to 4.8%, about $1.7 trillion, with e-commerce up 7.5% to 8.4%.
Retail sales up 4% to 4.8%, about $1.7 trillion, with e-commerce up 7.5% to 8.4%.
When should retailers prepare for the holidays?By early October: test site speed and checkout, publish gift guides and plan promotions.
By early October: test site speed and checkout, publish gift guides and plan promotions.
How do I win value-seeking shoppers?Clear pricing, bundles, free-shipping thresholds you can afford and loyalty rewards.
Clear pricing, bundles, free-shipping thresholds you can afford and loyalty rewards.
A store that's ready before the rush.
Speed, checkout, gift guides and product schema for the holiday season.
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