A trillion-dollar season. Resilient shoppers, careful spending.
Despite higher rates and energy costs, consumers are expected to spend more this holiday. Shops and restaurants that make gifting and booking easy will capture it.
By the Xuru Technologies team · 16 October 2026
Key takeaways
- The NRF forecasts November–December 2026 sales of $1.013 trillion, up 4.2%.
- Retailers plan 325,000 to 375,000 seasonal hires.
- Shoppers remain resilient but value-focused.
Holiday spending is the year's most important window for many businesses. This year's forecast is solid, even with economic headwinds.
What happened
The National Retail Federation released its forecast on 15 October. Retail Insight Network covered the figures.
What it means for businesses
- Gifting drives retail. Gift cards and guides convert.
- Parties drive restaurants. Group bookings fill December.
- Staffing is tight. Automation eases peak-season pressure.
Holiday playbook
| Business | Action |
|---|---|
| Retail | Gift guides, gift cards, early-access emails. |
| Restaurants | Party booking pages with deposits. |
| Hotels | Festive packages and gift vouchers. |
| All | AI assistant for peak-time questions. |
Frequently asked questions
What does the NRF forecast for holiday 2026?Sales of $1.013 trillion in November and December, up 4.2% from 2025.
Sales of $1.013 trillion in November and December, up 4.2% from 2025.
How can restaurants benefit?Open festive bookings early, take deposits for groups and sell gift cards online.
Open festive bookings early, take deposits for groups and sell gift cards online.
How do small businesses cope with peak demand?Use online booking, ordering and AI answers so staff focus on serving customers.
Use online booking, ordering and AI answers so staff focus on serving customers.
Ready for the busiest weeks of the year.
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